Barack Obama has made significant gains in the last week or so in his prospects for winning the electoral college count, and thus the election.
RealClearPolitics has the full map and stats here.
It would very much seem that Ohio and Florida are must-win states for McCain. Losing either just gives Obama too much of a lead. Likewise, if McCain carries Pennsylvania, where the polling shows a tight race, it would seem to be over for Obama (unless he in turn takes Ohio or Florida, obviously).
There are 11 toss-up states, 6 of them leaning towards Obama, giving him 71 electoral votes.
Only a 5-point swing would do it for McCain, giving him 270 votes, the minimum needed to win.
Here is the map with no toss up states (states leaning one way are counted that way).
As you can see, it's close.
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