Sunday, September 14, 2008

5 Reasons Why McCain Pulled Ahead

John McCain seems to be pulling off more than the conventional convention bounce in the polls. He's even pulling close in so-called swing states where Obama led handily.

Politico has an explanation: 5 Reasons Why McCain Pulled Ahead.

Some observations on the article..

  • One of the interesting points echoes what I asserted here, that McCain had, culminating in his convention speech, stolen Obama's message of change.
  • It appears true that McCain really is getting the votes of independents
  • I can't believe that a majority of people polled trust Obama over McCain with the economy. This after that man has plainly said that capital gains taxes, critical for capital formation and investment, are about "fairness", not about economic growth. And he said that in front of millions in a televised debate.
  • McCain completely gained the edge and momentum with the Palin pick - rallying and pumping up the base, garnering more independent votes, and stealing the news cycle with the constant focus on Palin

The 5 reasons, summary and quotes:

1. McCain as a 'change agent'
Eight in 10 Americans say they believe the country is on the wrong track.

Even though McCain has spent decades in Washington and a member of his party is in the White House, recent polling shows that he has managed to successfully portray himself as a change agent and erode Obama’s brand in the process

2. The center shifts: Independents move to McCain

Before the Republican convention, Gallup polling showed just 40 percent of independents favoring McCain.

Post-convention, that rose to 52 percent — and the increase in support was slightly greater among men than among women, which appears to undercut the idea that Sarah Palin has benefited the ticket by drawing women to it.

3. The economic gap narrows

When Democracy Corps asked voters last week which candidate would “do a better job” with the economy,” Obama had a 50 to 44 percent advantage—down from a 16-point edge in mid August.

4. Palin narrows the enthusiasm gap

The Republican base, once disenchanted, has returned with a vengeance since McCain’s surprise pick of the first-term Alaska governor as his running mate.

This week’s CBS News poll found that 53 percent of Obama voters said they were “enthusiastic” about Obama, up 5 points since before his party’s convention, and still better than the 42 percent of McCain supports who feel the same way. McCain’s support, though, is up 18 points since selecting Palin.

5. Democrats voter ID edge dulls

The week before the Republican convention, just 39 percent of voters said they leaned toward or identified themselves as Republicans. Following the convention, that number rose dramatically to 47 percent. Meanwhile the percentage of voters leaning toward or identifying themselves as Democrats dropped from 53 to 47

More analysis here at The Pantheon Journal.


Gail said...

I believe there is a 6th reason, which probably seems more subliminal than anything else. The growing hostility of certain nations: Russia (invasion of Georgia), Iran (disappearing nuclear fuel), Venezuela (banishing U.S. ambassador).

While none of these elements alone is cause for alarm, when viewed together, we see a world where our enemies feel comfortable that the U.S. is going soft. A world that fully expects Obama to win the presidency and they are indulging in this muscle flexing to prepare to enter the power vacuum in Obama is elected president.

I don't know if the American people are actually thinking about that, but I do think that at least subliminally, the issue of National Security, is reason number 6.

Best regards,
Gail S

Rob Baker said...

Gail - I totally agree. This point was much talked about during the invasion itself, and is certainly a big factor. Thanks!