Wednesday, October 1, 2008

Electoral Picture Darkens For McCain: Current Electoral Map

The economic nightmare currently being paraded in the news today is having an obvious effect on the presidential race - clearly favoring Obama.

As Newt Gingrich pointed out on Fox News, bad economic news favors 1) the non-incumbent party and, 2) the Democrats - and in this election those two are the same.

RealClearPolitics has the full map and numbers here.

Whereas before McCain only needed 5 electoral votes to swing his way and he'd win, he is now behind by 64 electoral votes, using today's polling numbers applied to electoral votes. Ughh.

Fortunately, people have short memories, and a month from now will hopefully be be voting for more reasons than economic panic. Not sure why people are leaning towards Obama's trillion-dollar spending package. I guess that counts as stimulus to some.

And though the polls have been tipping towards Obama for weeks now, they didn't effect the "no toss-up states" electoral map. Until now.

This would indicate the broader popularity of Obama in more states now. The no-toss-ups map was not effected until recently - perhaps because if more people in California or New York - liberal bastions - go to Obama in the polls, that wouldn't affect the outcome of the electoral map, since in the winner-take-all system Obama will likely get those states any way. Meaning, if a few million more people in California vote for Obama, it doesn't really matter, since Obama is carrying that state strongly anyway.  But now some more states have leaned towards Obama.

McCain Must swing 33 electoral votes his way (-33 for Obama, +33 for McCain gives McCain the necessary 270 electoral votes).  But a lot of the toss-up states only have 5 to 10 votes each.  Strap in for a wild ride to the election...

More incredible electoral fretting, here at The Pantheon Journal.

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